A different way to get your way
"He did it again."
"Every time. I've been telling you."
"How does he do it? How can anyone take him seriously?"
"I think that's how he does it."
He is funny, charming, and self-deprecating. His papers are brilliant. His hair is completely insane, he wears the same clothes almost every day, and his approach to personal grooming is decidedly scholarly. Occasionally, he says wild, wild things. Not aggressive, not suggestive, just wild. Yet whenever there's a resource to allocate or a decision to make, somehow he always seems to come out ahead.
People think he’s a mad scientist. Maybe he’s actually an evil genius.
In a confrontation, a natural inclination is to project strength: intimidate your opponent, psych them out, or bully them into retreating. This can work, but it can also put your opponent on alert or provoke an escalation you'd rather avoid. You could try something different. Instead of make them think they're losing, you could let them think they're winning.
Maria Konnikova is a psychologist and author. While researching her book The Biggest Bluff, she learned poker and turned pro, eventually winning a World Series bracelet. In an essay in the Wall Street Journal Konnikova describes overhearing another player refer to her as an “idiot woman” in Russian, not knowing that she is fluent in the language. He paid for it. During a hand, she bet all of her chips on the last round of play with “precisely nothing” in her hand. The guy thought and thought. And thought some more.
“You can’t possibly be bluffing here, can you?”
He threw his winning hand away.
Konnikova exploited her opponent’s mistaken assumption. Sometimes an opponent needs a bit of encouragement to make one.
In World War I, the Royal Navy ruled the seas. Nevertheless, British merchant shipping was being decimated, threatening Britain’s supply of food and raw materials. The culprit was the German U-boat. It could approach a merchant ship underwater, evading the powerful warships that patrolled the surface. After sighting its prey, the U-boat could target the merchant ship from below, expending a torpedo. But its stock of torpedoes was limited, and maritime law generally required the U-boat to reveal itself and allow the crew to escape before sinking the vessel. When these rules were followed, U-boats would surface, order the merchant ship to stop, allow the sailors to abandon ship, and then sink the ship with their guns.
The British armed some merchant ships. The ships equipped with guns were less likely to be attacked, but arming the entire merchant fleet was prohibitive. The U-boats themselves remained out of reach.
They also developed something more subtle. The Q-ship was an armed warship disguised as a merchant ship. Its guns were hidden behind false structures. The highly trained crew were dressed as merchant sailors. They flew the Red Ensign of the British merchant fleet. When a U-boat surfaced, they would comply with its demands. Part of the crew, the panic party, would abandon ship. The ship might even take some fire from the sub. As the U-boat moved into range, the Red Ensign would lower, replaced by the White Ensign of the Royal Navy. The false structures would fall away, and the guns would open fire. The timing had to be perfect: too early, and the sub could dive or retreat; too late, and the Q-ship might be sunk before springing the trap.
U-boats were difficult to track and attack below the surface. Enticing them to surface left them vulnerable.
The Q-ships were surprisingly ineffective: they sank relatively few U-boats, around a dozen. But they taught the German captains to fear the seemingly helpless merchant vessels. The captains adapted by attacking from below and avoiding suspicious vessels, but these adaptations reduced the U-boats’ effectiveness. They only carried about ten torpedoes, and exhausting them could cut the patrol short. Many of the suspicious merchant ships that the captains let go were actually unarmed. Even when a U-boat captain made the best possible decision, he was still worse off because he couldn't tell which ships were dangerous.
The fear of a trap can be as effective as the trap itself.
Sima Yi could smell victory. His rival Zhuge Liang had lost a key position and his supply lines were threatened. Finally, a decisive victory was within reach.
Zhuge Liang was a formidable opponent. When he needed to obtain a large number of arrows quickly, he sent boats carrying straw soldiers toward the enemy, provoking a defensive barrage. When the boats returned, he turned the enemy’s own arrows against them. He was as cautious as he was cunning: earlier in the campaign he had marched his army three extra days to avoid a possible ambush during a brief passage through a narrow gorge. It was rare for such a man to be vulnerable.
Sima Yi learns that Zhuge Liang and his troops are defending the fortified city of Xicheng. He orders his enormous army to march on the city. As they draw near, the scouts return with a strange report.
“Sir, the city appears undefended…”
“Come again?”
The scouts explain. Sima Yi listens to their report without interrupting. When they finish, he calls for his horse.
When he arrives at the city he sees the gates open, just as the scouts described. Some men are sweeping outside the gates. He spots Zhuge Liang himself sitting atop the gate tower, playing a stringed instrument.
A man of many talents.
Sima Yi returns to camp. He is ready for a decisive battle. Zhuge Liang, it seems, is not.
The straw soldiers, the boats, the mountain of arrows returning to their owners.
“It’s a trap,” he tells his commanders.
“Father, he knows you fear a trap. Maybe the trap itself is the ruse.”
Zhuge Liang is the most cautious commander that Sima Yi has ever faced. For him to attempt such a deception, he would have to be desperate beyond hope.
“We are not playing toy soldiers. This man would never leave us in charge of his fate.”
Sima Yi orders the army to retreat.
Zhuge Liang was, in fact, desperate beyond hope. His army was scattered. He was outnumbered sixty to one.
Sometimes the trap is actually real. The challenge is then to convince your opponent otherwise.
Although he agreed with everything the other Allied generals said, Kutuzov still urged caution. Yes, the French were weak on the right flank. If we could break it, we could indeed cut Napoleon’s supply lines. Yes, Napoleon could reinforce his flank at any time. But this was not a reason to attack immediately. Our reinforcements would arrive in a matter of days. Our position would improve with each passing day, while Napoleon’s would deteriorate. We should wait.
He had played this game before. The young Tsar, unfortunately, had not.
Although he faced real challenges, Napoleon was pleased. His army was operating far from base, deep in enemy territory. Enemy reinforcements were close. Time was on their side. Still, he saw a chance for a decisive victory. Instead of defending his strongest position in the center, which was the natural move, he could abandon the position and let the Allies take it. If he could get them to redeploy these forces to his right flank during the subsequent battle, he could quickly retake the center, splitting their army in two. It would be a rout.
The plan was risky. For it to work, the Allies would need to believe that leaving the center to attack his flank was worth it. To entice them, he would need to make the right flank vulnerable. The Allies would also need to interpret his initial withdrawal from the center as weakness. Otherwise, the move would raise suspicion.
The plan was in motion. His right flank was already weak. He had ordered a hasty withdrawal from the center. His troops were “ostentatiously” constructing defensive fortifications. About twenty kilometers away, French cavalry offered token resistance to an Allied attack before withdrawing in apparent disorder. He had already conveyed a message to the Russians requesting a parley with Tsar Alexander.
Alexander declined, sending a trusted aide, Prince Dolgorukov, instead.
As he rode toward Napoleon’s camp, Dolgorukov could see the French troops building defensive positions in the distance. When he drew near, the Emperor himself rode out beyond the French outposts to meet him. This was unusual, but it meant that Dolgorukov couldn't inspect the French lines up close. The two men dismounted and began talking right there on the road.
Napoleon spoke first. He questioned why Russia was intent on fighting France. They shared no border. France’s position in Europe was not a direct threat to Russia. Perhaps Russia would be better off focusing her might on the decaying Ottoman Empire, which offered an opportunity to expand her influence.
Dolgorukov clarified that Russia was fighting to counter Napoleon’s increasing influence over Western Europe. Russia would be happy for a return to peace with France, provided Napoleon loosened his grip on the Continent. He could start by giving up the Italian crown. Napoleon had crowned himself King of Italy six months before.
Napoleon listens quietly to the young envoy’s demands.
Dolgorukov isn’t finished. If Napoleon continues fighting and loses, the price of peace will be considerably higher. The Tsar will demand that he relinquish control of Belgium. He will also demand Savoy and Piedmont, which would serve as a buffer against future French aggression.
Napoleon finally speaks.
“The Tsar wishes a battle. Very well, then let us fight. I wash my hands of it.”
Napoleon turns and walks back to his horse. He mounts and rides back to camp. Dolgorukov had expected the meeting to be shorter.
When he returns to the Russian camp, he reports immediately to Alexander and the generals. Napoleon is frightened. He was eager to negotiate. He was calm, even in the face of increasingly extreme demands and threats. Once the demands became too great, he was resigned to the impending loss. His troops are hastily installing defensive positions. Even our advance guard could overwhelm them. This is our opportunity to resolve the French question.
Kutuzov was unconvinced. Nothing in Dolgorukov’s report changed the basic situation. Their reinforcements would arrive in a matter of days. If the French were truly weak, they would likely remain so. There was no reason to stake the campaign on the young prince’s assessment of Napoleon’s state of mind. He urged caution.
A few days later, the war council convened to finalize the battle plans. General Weyrother’s strategy hinged on moving the forces from the center to attack Napoleon’s weak right flank. Kutuzov had little to contribute. All the talk about “decisive victory” lulled him to sleep.
The next morning, as expected, the Allies attack the right flank, just as additional French troops arrive to reinforce it. As the Allied forces move away from the center, the French fight fiercely to retake it.
The Allied army is split. Napoleon wins a crushing victory.
In a letter to an ally a few days after the battle, Napoleon describes his meeting with Dolgorukov.
“This young man was exceedingly arrogant; he must have taken my extreme moderation as a sign of great fear, which was what I wanted.”
Within weeks, the Allied coalition falls apart, effectively ending the war.
Dolgorukov was right: the battle had indeed resolved the French question.
On May 7, 2026, a few days before the Indiana Fever’s season opener, head coach Stephanie White explained why she was moving away from the highly effective Caitlin Clark/Aliyah Boston pick and roll:
“Everybody's gameplan is ready for that.”
Over the course of the season, the Fever largely abandoned the play, sparing the other teams the trouble of trying to stop it.
Steph, it’s let them think they’re winning, not let them fucking win.
Notes
Q-ships. See Historic England's account of Q-ships and the U.S. Naval History and Heritage Command. The discussion of indirect effects is an interpretation.
The Empty City. The story comes from Romance of the Three Kingdoms and is a legend. Some aspects have been dramatized. For an analysis of the underlying strategic mechanism, see 100 Horsemen and the Empty City by Cotton and Liu.
Austerlitz. The account draws on Napoleon's 30th Bulletin, Savary's and Ségur's memoirs, historical accounts of the campaign, and Napoleon's letter of December 5, 1805.
Stephanie White. Her May 7, 2026, appearance on Women's Sports Now is discussed in Sports Illustrated. Her explanation for the strategic adjustment is quoted in this subsequent analysis.